The UK medal count really is impressive, the US is just as expected

Repeating my analysis from last week on medal counts. To recap, let’s look for models that predict a country’s medal count based on GDP/population and then check which countries over- or under-perform their size and wealth. In the end, simple total GDP at market rates was the best predictor.

Measured by ratio of obtained medals to predicted medals, Russia was still overperforming (and they got banned from several of the events, so that is very impressive, although we’ll never know of which of the other sports they should have gotten banned from). Interestingly, we also see several caucusian countries showing up. And the big winner of this year’s Olympics, Great Britain, does show up as getting many more medals than their GDP predicts.

Finally, note that France, which was underperfoming at the beginning of the Olympics, not only caught up, but made it to the over-performers table (très bien, la France!).

Over performing countries
                   delta  got  predicted     ratio
Russia         41.352770   56  14.647230  3.823248
Azerbaijan     11.717356   18   6.282644  2.865036
Great Britain  42.256925   67  24.743075  2.707828
New Zealand    10.872079   18   7.127921  2.525280
Kazakhstan      9.783999   17   7.216001  2.355875
Hungary         8.201280   15   6.798720  2.206298
Kenya           6.573411   13   6.426589  2.022846
Uzbekistan      6.550104   13   6.449896  2.015536
Australia      13.899721   29  15.100279  1.920494
France         19.639542   42  22.360458  1.878316

Note that neither the US nor China show up. If anything, they are performing slightly below expectations.

Now, for the bottom half:

Under performing countries
                          delta  got  predicted     ratio
India                -18.620390    2  20.620390  0.096991
Nigeria               -8.497863    1   9.497863  0.105287
Austria               -7.754915    1   8.754915  0.114222
United Arab Emirates  -7.728790    1   8.728790  0.114563
Singapore             -7.190392    1   8.190392  0.122094
Philippines           -7.185019    1   8.185019  0.122174
Finland               -6.753509    1   7.753509  0.128974
Portugal              -6.539120    1   7.539120  0.132641
Qatar                 -6.316772    1   7.316772  0.136672
Puerto Rico           -5.873931    1   6.873931  0.145477

India got two medals (neither of which gold, one silver and one bronze) even though they are on track to becoming one of the world’s largest economies (right now, their GDP is comparable to Italy’s, but growing fast, while Italy is stagnant).

Several oil countries (unearned wealth) are listed there. The 3 richest countries not to win a medal at all are Saudi ArabiaPakistan, and Chile; another trio of resource rich countries.


You can run the whole analysis on a mybinder repo.


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